Recent surveys conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) have revealed a significant skepticism among US and Taiwanese experts about China’s military capability to successfully invade Taiwan. A notable 73% of the 52 US experts surveyed expressed doubts about the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) ability to conduct an effective amphibious invasion. This skepticism reflects a broader perspective on the current state of China’s military strength and strategy towards Taiwan.
The survey included individuals with extensive experience in the US government, academics, and think-tank experts, providing a well-rounded view of the situation. One of the key factors influencing these opinions is the belief that the United States would likely intervene militarily if China attempted such an invasion. A striking 96% of US experts expressed confidence in US intervention to defend Taiwan in such a scenario.
While the possibility of a direct invasion is seen as less likely, experts did acknowledge that China might exert pressure on Taiwan through other means. A significant majority of both US and Taiwanese experts agreed that China could effectively implement a quarantine or blockade against Taiwan. These actions could restrict the flow of goods and services to the island, potentially escalating to a more severe conflict.
The survey also highlighted a general pessimism about the future of cross-strait relations. A majority of experts from both Taiwan and the United States anticipate increased tensions and potential crises in the year 2024. This pessimism is fueled by recent political developments in Taiwan and the ongoing aggressive posture of China under the leadership of Xi Jinping.
Key Observations
- Military Capability and Strategy: The survey points to a lack of confidence in China’s military capability to successfully invade Taiwan, highlighting a potential gap in the PLA’s amphibious assault capabilities.
- US Involvement: The belief in US military intervention plays a significant role in the analysis of potential conflict scenarios, indicating the importance of US-Taiwan relations in regional security dynamics.
- Alternative Pressure Tactics: The likelihood of China resorting to non-military means such as a quarantine or blockade to exert pressure on Taiwan is acknowledged, suggesting a different axis of conflict that could still have significant implications.
- Pessimistic Outlook for Cross-Strait Relations: The survey reflects concerns about escalating tensions and potential crises in the near future, underscoring the volatile nature of the situation.